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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in ensuring safer seas, including through operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the plans are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.