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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple formula. It commonly functions as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

Yet the current field is profoundly different. The group of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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