Are You Not Being Entertained? The Fall of Open-Play Goals from Open Play
A major talking point of the EPL this campaign concerns the reduction of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way clubs are finding goals more from dead-ball situations instead.
Comparing scoring methods to matchday 11 the prior season, there have been a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and spot-kicks, giving us 13 fewer overall.
Examining the broader view, the number of shots teams are taking have seen an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than this time last season.
Regardless of the big increase in set-piece goals, we've actually seen just two more shots generated from them excluding spot-kicks, indicating how effective clubs are at discovering methods to score from set-pieces.
Scoring Rates Show an Interesting Narrative
301 total goals recorded in 110 games to date averages out at 2.74 goals per game, which if it continued for all 38 games could be the least for five years, back in 2020-21 (2.69).
But just under 200 goals coming in open play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the smallest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 per game).
The 2009-10 season additionally represents the sole English top-flight campaign to witness scoring at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).
Which Teams Account for This Change?
Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have seen the most significant decline, registering just four in 11 matches, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.
Excluding Wolves, the EPL's fall in goals from open play is largely a trend among London clubs, with half of the capital's seven sides netting five or more goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.
To be fair, this is mainly because them scoring numerous goals at the start of last season rather than their genuine struggle to find the net in open-play the current term.
At the same time Man City have seen the most significant jump, with nearly all of their 23 goals this season coming in open-play.
Dead-Ball Dominance
Looking at newly promoted sides with the relegated sides they took the place of. Sunderland the Black Cats have scored three more goals in open play than Southampton managed in matchday 11 en route to demotion last season.
In terms of scoring from set-pieces (not counting penalties), Arsenal and the Blues have seen the biggest increase, with both sides making up for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open play with the same number from dead-ball chances.
Man United have netted two times more goals from set-plays as they did in the 11 games last season before their coach took charge, while the Black Cats again have been more successful at scoring than the club they replaced they superseded.
City seem unaware of the message about netting additional goals from set-plays, since they've scored a reduction of three than the previous campaign, like Forest, though that might be down to the tactical shift they have tried to implement.
League-Wide Trends
Six teams – Arsenal, Chelsea, the Cottagers, the Magpies, Tottenham and the Hammers – have been this season's leading trend-followers by scoring fewer scores from open play and more from set-plays, while Manchester City stand as the unique club to buck the trend so far by achieving the exact opposite.
It remains to be seen to see if clubs carry on to place such emphasis on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they find again their all-round creativity and begin scoring more goals in open play as well.
