Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
